Recessions are known to be mostly about a broad-based weakness seen in falling job growth, incomes, sales and output. OK, so it has been found that the NBER, a private economic-research group, defined a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production and wholesale-retail sales.” Also mentioned was that the current situation is becoming really bad & has a risk of becoming much worst. Well, so much for hoping a quick recovery of the US economy!
So let us take a look at the four out of five major indicators pointing towards an American recession:
• Payrolls: Fallen for two months in a row
• Incomes: Annualized growth rate is negative with recent inflation nullifying any income gains
• Industrial output: Not much difference; nor good nor bad
• Business sales: Lower than a year ago
• GDP: 4% improvement than a year ago